Alex Perkins Associate Professor
Research in the Perkins Lab applies mathematical, computational, and statistical approaches to answer basic and applied research questions about the ecology and epidemiology of infectious diseases. This work focuses primarily on mosquito-borne diseases of humans. These diseases pose a risk to billions of people, are the subject of intense development of new interventions, and are highly sensitive to numerous forms of global change. Accordingly, the goal of our research is to attain a predictive understanding of where and when these diseases occur, what the impact of interventions will be in curtailing their burden, and how the distribution of these diseases and their response to interventions will change over time as a result of changes in their underlying drivers. Through this research, we hope to elevate the rigor of the information on which decision makers act, both in terms of accuracy and quantification of uncertainty. We accomplish this through three interconnected themes of our research.
- Incorporating transmission dynamics into infectious disease mapping: With relatively few exceptions, geographic mapping of infectious diseases relies on phenomenological descriptions of relationships between disease and its drivers and disregards a rich body of theory on transmission dynamics. The first theme of our research seeks to devise new approaches that leverage transmission dynamics theory to enhance the interpretability and utility of infectious disease mapping.
- Model-guided assessment of interventions for infectious disease prevention: Mathematical modeling has a key role to play in designing and interpreting studies to assess intervention efficacy and to make projections of the impact of interventions when deployed at population scales. The second theme of our research seeks to advance these capabilities for prevention of mosquito-borne diseases.
- Infectious disease dynamics in the context of global change: The dependence of vector-borne diseases on environmental conditions makes them highly sensitive to multiple forms of global change. The third theme of our research seeks to understand the interconnected nature of these dependencies.
- Associate Professor, University of Notre Dame - Present
- Eck Family Assistant Professor, University of Notre Dame 2014-2020
- Concurrent Faculty in Applied and Computational Mathematics and Statistics, University of Notre Dame 2015-Present
- RAPIDD Postdoctoral Fellow, NIH Fogarty International Center and University of California, Davis 2011-2014
- Ph.D. Population Biology, University of California, Davis 2011
- B.A. Computational Ecology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville 2006
Selected Recent Papers:
- SM Moore, RJ Oidtman, KJ Soda, AS Siraj, RC Reiner, CM Barker, TA Perkins. 2020. Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14:e0008640.
- QA ten Bosch, JM Wagman, F Castro-Llanos, NL Achee, JP Grieco, TA Perkins. 2020. Community-level impacts of spatial repellents for control of diseases vectored by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. PLOS Computational Biology 16:1008190.
- TA Perkins, G España. 2020. Optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 82:118.
- TA Perkins*, SM Cavany*, SM Moore*, RJ Oidtman, A Lerch, M Poterek. 2020. Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117:22597.
- SM Cavany, G España, AL Lloyd, LA Waller, U Kitron, H Astete, WH Elson, GM Vazquez-Prokopec, TW Scott, AC Morrison, RC Reiner, TA Perkins. 2020. Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response. PLOS Computational Biology 16:e1007743.
- G España, Y Yao, KB Anderson, MC Fitzpatrick, DL Smith, AC Morrison, A Wilder-Smith, TW Scott, TA Perkins. 2019. Model-based assessment of public health impact and cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination following screening for prior exposure. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13:e0007482.
- TA Perkins*, RC Reiner*, G España*, QA ten Bosch, A Verma, K Liebman, VA Paz-Soldan, JP Elder, AC Morrison, ST Stoddard, U Kitron, GM Vazquez-Prokopec, TW Scott, DL Smith. 2019. An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections. PLOS Computational Biology 15:e1006710.
- RJ Oidtman RJ, S Lai, Z Huang, J Yang, AS Siraj, RC Reiner, AJ Tatem,
TA Perkins, H Yu. 2019. Inter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China. Nature Communications 10:1148.
- CBF Vogels*, C Ruckert*, SM Cavany*, TA Perkins, GD Ebel, ND Grubaugh. 2019. Arbovirus coinfection and co-transmission: a neglected public health concern? PLOS Biology 17:e3000130.
- SM Moore, QA ten Bosch, AS Siraj, KJ Soda, G España, A Campo, S Gomez, D Salas, B Raybaud, E Wenger, P Welkhoff, TA Perkins. 2018 Local and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity. BMC Medicine 16:152.
- QA ten Bosch, HE Clapham, L Lambrechts, V Duoung, P Buchy, BM Althouse, AL Lloyd, LA Waller, AC Morrison, U Kitron, GM Vazquez-Prokopec, TW Scott, TA Perkins. 2018 Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission. PLOS Pathogens 14:e1006965.
- AS Siraj, RJ Oidtman, JH Huber, MUG Kraemer, OJ Brady, MA Johansson, TA Perkins. 2017 Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11:e0005797.
- TA Perkins. 2017 Retracing Zika’s footsteps across the Americas with computational modeling. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114:5558-5560.
- S Flasche*, M Jit*, I Rodriguez-Barraquer*, L Coudeville*, M Recker*, K Koelle*, G Milne*, T Hladish*, TA Perkins*, I Dorigatti, DAT Cummings, G Espana, J Kelso, I Longini, J Lourenco, C Pearson, RC Reiner, Jr., NM Ferguson. 2016 The long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of a routine vaccination with a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia): a model comparison study. PLOS Medicine 13:e1002181.
- TA Perkins, AS Siraj, C Warren Ruktonanchai, MUG Kraemer, AJ Tatem. 2016 Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas. Nature Microbiology 1:16216.